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Likely Democratic voters want MD Senate to vote on redistricting, poll finds
(Governor's Redistricting Advisory Commission)
Likely Democratic voters want MD Senate to vote on redistricting, poll finds
Listen to this articleKey Takeaways:
- 70% of likely Democratic voters support redrawing Maryland’s congressional map before the 2026 midterm elections.
- HB 488 would allow voters to decide via referendum whether the new map applies through 2030.
- Opponents warn of potential lawsuits, Maryland Supreme Court challenges and election delays.
- Senate President Bill Ferguson has signaled resistance, citing high legal and political risks.
A majority of Democratic voters said that they support the Maryland Senate advancing the bill to redraw the state’s congressional map midcycle, a recent poll found.
A poll of 800 likely Democratic voters conducted by Zenith Research on behalf of Progressive Maryland found that 70% of respondents support redrawing the state’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm election, and 68% support the Senate voting on the legislation to do so that the House passed earlier this month.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5% “at the 95% confidence level.”
RELATED: Redistricting could fracture Moore’s relationship with Senate, Republicans say
Last week, the House passed HB 488, which would reconfigure the state’s congressional boundaries and put forth a ballot referendum to allow Maryland voters to determine if that map should only remain in effect for the 2026 election, or if it would also apply in 2028 and 2030.
Should the bill pass and voters approve the referendum, Maryland’s congressional map would be redrawn after the 2030 census.
Currently, seven of eight of Maryland’s congressional districts are held by Democrats. Both of Maryland’s U.S. Senate representatives are also Democrats.
The map is poised to give state Democrats an 8-0 map. Members of the GOP allege the current attempt at midcycle redistricting is being pursued to push Congressman Andy Harris, the only Republican in the congressional delegation and an ally of President Donald Trump, out of office.
After seeing arguments for and against midcycle redistricting in random order, when asked if they “support or oppose Maryland lawmakers redrawing the state’s congressional district lines before the 2026 midterm elections,” 34% of respondents said they “strongly support” it, 36% said they “somewhat support” it, 14% “somewhat oppose” the process, 6% were in strong opposition and 10% responded that they were unsure.
According to the poll, supporters responded that Maryland needs to redraw its congressional map in response to Trump’s call for certain red states to pursue midcycle redistricting ahead of the midterm election.
Opponents of redrawing the map say it could lead to lawsuits, election delays, the possibility of it being struck down by the Maryland Supreme Court and the notion that it will distract the legislature from more pressing issues.
In July, Trump’s U.S. Justice Department sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, both Republicans, alleging that certain congressional districts in the state are majority minority districts, further stating that they “are nothing more than vestiges of an unconstitutional racially based gerrymandering past, which must be abandoned, and must now be corrected by Texas.” The Texas legislature then reconfigured the districts, garnering an additional five districts for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
In short order, California’s legislature introduced a new congressional map. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, approved it for a November referendum, in which California voters passed it to allow the new map to take effect until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission redraws the maps after the 2030 census. This gave Democrats an additional five seats.
In November, Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, convened the Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission, which was charged with determining if Marylanders are interested in redrawing the state’s map midcycle.
After a nonpublic vote, the commission recommended to Moore that the state pursue a new map. A second nonpublic vote determined its configuration.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah have already redrawn their maps. Alongside Maryland, South Carolina, Virginia and Washington state have introduced legislation to do so.
According to the poll, 67% of Black voters polled support redrawing Maryland’s map.
Testifying at the House bill hearing, Moore, Maryland’s first and the nation’s only current Black governor, alleged that Trump is enacting “political redlining” in his call for red states to redraw their districts in his favor.
Though the bill passed out of the House chamber, it is currently in the Senate Rules Committee, where Senate President Bill Ferguson, D-Baltimore City, has said “it’ll sit.”
At a news conference declaring their priorities for the 2026 session Thursday, Del. N. Scott Phillips, the chair of the Maryland Legislative Black Caucus — which is composed of members of both the House and Senate — declined to take a position on the matter.
“We focus on consensus, and where there is no consensus, you will not hear from us on a particular issue,” Phillips said.
Ferguson, who sat on the Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission, has been staunchly opposed to midcycle redistricting before the conversation in Maryland began, writing to his Democratic Caucus in October that “midcycle redistricting for Maryland presents a reality where the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing map would be undermined.”
According to Ferguson, the opinion of the Senate Democratic Caucus largely has remained unchanged, save for Sen. Arthur Ellis, D-Charles, who, under Moore’s influence, is protesting certain Senate procedure unless or until the bill is brought to the floor for a vote.
This has not deterred Moore, who, during his State of the State address Wednesday, appealed publicly to Ferguson to bring the bill to the floor.
“I know there’s disagreement right now between the House and members of the Senate, so my ask is simple: Do not let the democratic process die in the free state. Debate it, discuss it, make adjustments if necessary. And put it to a vote,” Moore said, prompting boos from some lawmakers in the chamber.
According to the Thursday poll, 68% of respondents say the Senate should vote on the map passed by the House, 12% said a vote should not be held and 20% responded they were “unsure.”
Should the Senate have a change of heart and pass the map, it — as well as the current 7-1 map, which, thus far, has been unchallenged — is at risk of being struck down, allowing judges to draw and implement their own, which could be more favorable to Republicans.
