Ferguson slaps down MD redistricting, says risk of losing Dem seats is ‘simply too great’

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Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson issued a letter to his Democratic Caucus Monday evening stating pre-emptively that his chamber will not advance a bill to implement midcycle congressional redistricting, arguing uncertainty about maintaining seven of eight congressional districts.

“Despite deeply shared frustrations about the state of our country, midcycle redistricting for Maryland presents a reality where the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risk to Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing map would be undermined,” reads Ferguson’s letter, which was reviewed by The Daily Record.

As first reported by Politico, Ferguson, D-Baltimore City, sent a letter detailing several points as to why his chamber should not move forward with plans to reconfigure Maryland’s congressional districts, including the 2022 fight waged in the state’s highest court, where former Supreme Court Judge Lynn A. Battaglia struck down the map drawn by the legislature’s Democratic supermajority during a late-year special legislative session in 2021.

Battaglia ruled that the 2021 map violated the Maryland Constitution, saying it was “a product of extreme partisan gerrymandering.” The General Assembly redrew the map by the end of the 2022 legislative session, leading to all contesting parties withdrawing their legal claims.

According to Ferguson’s letter, 31.5% of Maryland’s registered voters are Republicans. 

“We do not know how a court would assess a revised midcycle map and whether the court would use party affiliation as a measure,” Ferguson wrote. “We do, however, have certainty under the current map; that evaporates the moment we start down the path of redistricting mid-cycle with an unclear legal landscape and an even more unclear legal timeline.”

Ferguson also noted that a redistricted map “would have ramifications” on the 2026 election, writing that the filing deadline for candidacy and Maryland’s primary election would likely have to be pushed back.

The question of redistricting has arisen from pressure President Donald Trump has placed on states like Texas to push earlier redistricted maps that would win Republican seats in the midterm election, potentially allowing the GOP to maintain power over the U.S. House and Senate.

“This push means that each of you are feeling the weight of the need to fight back, not just intrinsically, but from neighbors, family, other electeds, and constituents,” wrote Ferguson. “I understand the pressure, as I am experiencing alongside you.”

Democratic voters outnumber Republicans on a two-to-one margin in Maryland. Of the eight House seats Maryland has, seven are occupied by Democrats.

House Majority Leader David Moon has expressed intent to introduce legislation allowing for midcycle redistricting in 2026. 

Moon did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Daily Record. 

In a statement Wednesday afternoon, House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones, D-Baltimore County, disagreed with Ferguson, saying that midcycle redistricting “should concern anyone who cares about the health of our democratic institutions and the future of fair elections.”

“Closing the door now on the mid-cycle redistricting debate denies our constituents the opportunity to voice their opinion on an issue that goes far beyond their district lines,” Jones said. “As I’ve stated before, my door remains open to my colleagues in the Senate and to the Governor to jointly pursue efforts to protect our democracy.”

Also in favor of redistricting,  Del. Jheanelle Wilkins, a Montgomery County Democrat who serves in Moon’s district and is supportive of the potential to redistrict, said in a text message to The Daily Record that “we cannot miss this moment to ensure accountability and fair representation.”

“Our Democracy is at stake in a real way, and we have an obligation to make sure district lines truly reflect our communities,” Wilkins wrote. “At a time when voting rights, diversity, and basic freedoms are under assault, Maryland must step up to ensure we have the strongest and most representative government possible.”

Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, said that Maryland will not “bend the knee to the Trump administration,” adding that he will “work with anyone,” including Ferguson, to make sure that the state does not “cow down.”

“We’re not going to allow the Trump administration to rig the rules so they can try to win an election. Because they know they cannot win election on policy, so they’re just going to try to alter the setup of an election,” he said.

In a statement issued Wednesday afternoon, House Minority Leader Jason Buckel, R-Allegany, said that Ferguson “has realized what we have known for years: Maryland is already one of the most partisanly gerrymandered states in the U.S., and trying to redistrict even further to wholly eliminate the voices of Republicans and trying to subvert the votes of the Eastern Shore solely in an effort to play D.C. politics is a terrible idea.”

During the 2024 presidential election, former Vice President Kamala Harris won Maryland on a vote of 63% to 34%. However, 16 of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions leaned Trump in 2024 — more than half of which are counties on the Eastern Shore.

“Politically, we suspect that existing Democratic members of Congress did not want to see their own gerrymandered districts ‘weakened’ to reflect their true partisan nature,” Buckel said. “Maryland is not a 7-1 Democratic state by registration, voting history, or geography, and it is surely not an ‘all-Democrat’ state. We commend President Ferguson for recognizing the folly of this type of extremism, and hope this ends the speculation and veiled threats from Governor Moore and other Annapolis Democrats.”

According to Ferguson, redistricting Maryland could pose problems to states that don’t have Democratic supermajorities. Even states that do, he said, leave open the possibility of Republicans picking up an additional 20 seats. 

Ferguson said that he has, over the past few months, spoken with other state Senate presidents, saying that several Republican states are resisting the pressure to redistrict, and are mostly able to do so because Maryland and other Democratic states are not redistricting either.”

“In short — if Maryland redistricts, Republican-led states that were not planning to do so, will,” he wrote. “That means Maryland’s potential gain of one seat is immediately eliminated, and, in fact, worsens the national outlook.”

Ferguson also pointed to the history of racial gerrymandering among other states, alleging that it would be “hypocritical” of Maryland, which he said has “long fought against” the practice, to implement a map based on party affiliation. 

Finally, Ferguson wrote that he has “personal concerns” with the potential long-term effects that midterm redistricting would have on the “resilience and trust in Democracy,” adding that he believes it “twists rules for potential short-term advantage while undermining trust in institutions, and, ultimately, democracy.”

“…[B]ut that is not the reason we should not pursue it,” Ferguson continued. “Simply put, it is too risky and jeopardizes Maryland’s ability to fight against the radical Trump administration.”

“At a time where every seat in Congress matters, the potential for ceding yet another one to Republicans here in Maryland is simply too great,” he said.

This story has been updated.