Trump’s return to office may put Baltimore projects in limbo

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Spending on infrastructure projects, such as improvements to the Howard Street Tunnel through downtown Baltimore, is expected to benefit the metro area economy in the near future. However, following November’s presidential election, the future of many of those projects is in doubt.

Several proposed projects, including improvements to passenger rail service and replacing the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, face murky futures following President-elect Donald J. Trump’s November election.

“We could see plans for significant federal investments in the Red Line (light rail line) disappear. We could see federal investments in getting the Key Bridge reconstructed disappear. So there’s a lot of uncertainty, but it’s pretty much all on the downside,” said Maryland Center on Economic Policy Research Analyst Christopher Meyer.

Concerns about funding for crucial infrastructure projects have come since the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden committed to substantial spending on infrastructure projects, such as $4.7 billion for improvements to the Federick Douglass Tunnel commuter rail tunnel through West Baltimore, and roughly $1.9 billion to replace the Key Bridge.

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Economists said that while it’s impossible to predict whether a new Trump administration will cut federal spending on essential projects in the Baltimore metro area, any decision to slash those investments can substantially disrupt the local economy.

However, Trump’s allies in Congress, like Maryland Rep. Andy Harris, have told reporters recently that he expects to slash the federal budget and that state governments must increase commitments for projects like the Red Line light rail line.

“The implications this will have on the State of Maryland’s economy will be tremendous; Our economy is already considered stagnant, and our state is facing budget challenges — this tragedy could make those more severe,” according to a Maryland Chamber of Commerce statement.

In particular, a decision to revoke pledged federal funds to pay to replace the Key Bridge, which collapsed after a container ship collided with it in early 2024, would represent a substantial setback to the Baltimore metro area economy.

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Businesses that work at and depend on the Port of Baltimore would feel that pain acutely due to companies rerouting products like cars, sugar and steel to rival ports in Philadelphia, New York and Norfolk, Virginia.

According to the Maryland Chamber of Commerce, business at the port generates approximately $3.3 billion in personal income and nearly $400 million in tax revenues annually. Additionally, Maryland could lose up to $15 million daily in revenue due to the bridge’s collapse.

“In general, infrastructure investments are key to all local economies, and any reduction in that will have a harmful effect … The unique thing about Maryland is that we have a recent disaster that we’re trying to recover from, and we might see federal help with that disappear,” Meyer said.

The loss of full federal funding for a project like replacing the Key Bridge, especially when the state government faces a $1 billion in cash and structural deficits this year that’s expected to increase to about $2.7 billion by 2026, could substantially hinder the local economy.

“Maryland is a very, very blue state. Some things on the table … may not be available for Maryland to pursue … It’s not clear. Before the election, Biden indicated that he would pay 100%, or close to 100%, of the (Key Bridge) rebuilding effort – it’s not clear after the election (if) that be the case,” Daraius Irani, an economist and vice president of strategic partnerships and applied research at Towson University, said.

The potential loss of federal funding to replace the Key Bridge isn’t the only worry for businesses at the port caused by the change in presidential administration. During the campaign, Trump pledged to enact tariffs of imported goods from countries like Mexico, Canada, and China.

Economists expect those tariffs to increase the cost of those goods, reducing demand for those products and business at the port.

The tariffs — Trump has threatened to increase those charges from 25% to 60% — could be a substantial drag on key products like cars and trucks that move through the Port of Baltimore. The Port of Baltimore is the nation’s busiest port in terms of vehicle handling.

“Tariffs would definitely decrease business at the port, as well as decrease families’ disposable income, and if there is retaliation from our trade partners and essentially (causing) a trade war, then that could also have a job impact,” Meyer said.