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C. Fraser Smith: History not on Hogan’s side
Does Larry Hogan know what he’s up against?
The former Ehrlich Administration appointment secretary from Prince George’s County says he’s ready to run for governor this year.
He talked year ago about running as a way to advertise his business. The race could have its ego-boosting aspect as well, he conceded.
Then, over time, he began to think maybe he could pull it off. It’s hard to see how.
Ego and business-promotion objectives were probably more realistic goals. Did I mention that Hogan is a Republican running in Maryland?
Here are some of the specifics of Hogan’s hurdles:
Democrats enjoy a 2-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration. That’s the usual newspaper shorthand.
Put another way, it means that Democratic candidates have a head start of 1 million registered voters. You can’t win without some of them, and many oppose you from go.
For this reason, among others, it seems fair to say, Republicans don’t hold a single statewide office in Maryland. Not governor, not comptroller; both U.S. senators are Democrats. Seven of the eight members of Congress are Democrats.
No Republican had won the governor’s mansion in the 34 years between Republicans Spiro T. Agnew and Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.
The numbers and the electoral history tend to define us.
Outcomes are driven, not simply by party machine, but by “attitudes, values and beliefs, and these help drive the differences between Maryland Democrats and Republicans,” says John T. Willis, the foremost student of government and political history in this state. And he says: “These are not distinctions at the margins; these are often disputes about the very principles of policy. “
For those Republicans like Hogan who would run for high office in Maryland, it would be well to have some familiarity with this history and this assessment (or maybe it’s better not to think about it). Victory at the polls in Maryland is not merely the pitting of one worthy against another. Victory will come to the Republican candidate who is lucky enough to find a significant chink in his or her Democratic opponent’s armor or to benefit from some irresistible tide sweeping across all the states, overriding Maryland’s tendencies.
Ehrlich himself made the dour forecast as he was gathering support in 2002: “We have one shot,” he told a gathering of the faithful. “It comes around every 40 or 50 years. It’s not coming around in our lifetimes again.”
Willis quotes him, calling the observation “prescient” — but not prescient, really. More like looking at the record.
Ehrlich won because his opponent, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, ran with several handicaps. Some saw her as a Kennedy carpetbagger; some didn’t like her mentor, Parris N. Glendening; some thought she wasn’t ready.
Agnew won because he seemed more like a Maryland voter than his opponent, George Mahoney. Mahoney’s campaign was based on an anti-integration platform signaled by his campaign theme, “Your Home is Your Castle.”
Republicans do well in some local contests, but statewide winners have been few over the last 75 years. Theodore R. McKeldin, Charles McC. Mathias and Helen Delich Bentley won by muting their partisan differences with Democrats and by reaching out to black voters.
Ehrlich beat a weak candidate in 2002. Four years later, he faced Martin O’Malley, then the mayor of Baltimore — a candidate of accomplishment and vigor with strong party backing.
So, we may applaud Larry Hogan’s willingness to endure months of campaigning. He’ll carry the proud GOP banner. He may put enough pressure on the Democratic nominee to produce a better governor. All good.
And you never know what might happen. The Obamacare sign-up fiasco in Maryland — mismanaged by the Democrats — could weaken the party’s grip.
Friends say Hogan will be a good candidate. He’ll have a bit of pizzazz. But he has to convince some of the smart money to get him on television. Not an easy sell: Smart money knows the history, too.
C. Fraser Smith is senior news analyst at WYPR-FM. His column appears Fridays in the Daily Record. His email address is fsmith@wypr.org.
