C. Fraser Smith: Power shifts and power grabs

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The powers that be in Baltimore, sorely diminished, are looking for ways to save what power remains.

It’s been obvious for some time: Maryland’s political center of gravity has shifted toward Washington. Most of the state’s voters live in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. Many of its most important political figures represent the District of Columbia’s Maryland suburbs.

The shift is politically seismic.

The city of Baltimore, where Democrats built majorities for most of the last century, has seen its power ebb dramatically. Population is down from just under a million in 1950 to about 635,000 today.

Even the people who still live in the city can’t be counted on to actually vote. Turnout in the recent primary election was less than 20 percent.

Loss of strength at the polls means important committee seats in the General Assembly are not held by Baltimoreans as they were 1980s and 1990s.

Congressional redistricting may increase the D.C. suburbs’ clout even more. Population shifts require re-balancing of voting districts to achieve one-person, one-vote. The newest new map would give the Washington area five congressmen to two or three for the Baltimore area.

When legislative redistricting is completed early next year, the city probably will have lost another senatorial district — three House of Delegates members as well as a senator.

Another power-shift straw in the wind is the controversy over moving certain state offices from Anne Arundel County to Prince George’s County. The move is underplayed as merely the fulfillment of a campaign pledge by Gov. Martin O’Malley.

Prince George’s doesn’t have its share of state installations, so O’Malley said he’d solve the problem. If you’re a Democrat, you’re saying “Serves you right, Arundel, for voting Republican.”

Merger or power grab?

The proposed merger of the University of Maryland campuses — the flagship at College Park and the professional schools in Baltimore — is perhaps the clearest illustration of the way the earth has moved.

State Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller proposed the merger. He and his supporters say a combined university system will give Maryland more prestige nationally. It will mean substantial research grants for the state. College Park, moreover, wants to see more financial recognition of its flagship status within the state system.

In Baltimore, the idea is seen as unnecessary and ill-considered — maybe even counterproductive. Would a consolidated university command more research dollars or could it have the opposite effect? Two universities could win two grants for some project or other. A merged entity might be limited to one.

The University of Maryland, Baltimore, has the usual complement of high-ranking administrators — many of whom presumably would be redundant in a merged system. These figures are spokespersons for the city and the city and the region. Their loss would be significant.

There is thinking in Baltimore that Miller wants to see the law school in College Park. It’s just been settled into a lovely new building in Baltimore so that seems pretty wasteful, but sometimes power doesn’t care about anything but winning.

City officials are resisting what they rightly see as a power grab. They’ve had to fall back on arguments — not a good sign. Lamentably, it’s not about the pluses and minuses.

The Baltimore forces will resist with good reason. A merger would leave Baltimore with less significance by definition.

It’s not a fait accompli. The betting is that a study committee will recommend “more cooperation” between the campuses for now. But down the road? Don’t bet against it.

The university system’s Board of Regents will hold another public hearing on the proposal in the coming weeks. Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake will testify. So will the Greater Baltimore Committee’s Donald C. Fry.

The question is whether good arguments alone can convince the powerful to back off.

C. Fraser Smith is senior news analyst at WYPR-FM. His column appears Fridays in The Daily Record. His email address is fsmith@wypr.org.